2020 Election Predictions

It’s time to get the ball rolling on some 2020 predictions because I see the outcome of that election as being a major factor in the trajectory of this nation’s culture. It’s not because I believe the office of the president holds that much importance, rather because the election is the largest social experiment in the world. This past cycle we successfully brainwashed half the nation into believing we were reliving 1940’s German history, and the other half into thinking the host of Miss-America had the secret fix for a failing economy. The president is unimportant; the stories told about the president mean everything.

The teeter totter of Dem/Rep victory is the main mechanic of altering our social narrative. What I mean by social narrative is the set of ideas that are acceptable to promote and repeat. In our current cultural narrative is acceptable to promote and repeat that women suffer discrimination. It is not acceptable to suggest that our borders should be secured. Sure there are people saying it, the president is saying it, but the narrative has made it controversial.

Narrative is awarded to the party that can claim the greatest victim-hood. With the recent Rep. win, the conservatives are placated and the Liberals are in overdrive. The cultural narrative is predominantly a liberal one now because they are motivated to retake power and fight injustice. The conservatives basically have what they want and can only muster a few passing laughs at the fever of the other side.

Should the 2020 go to the democrats, the Republicans may regain their initiative and take back the cultural narrative, but only after the fact. They’re going to be sluggish compared to the left. Should it go to the republicans however, the left will essentially lock down their ownership of cultural narrative for the foreseeable future. It’s this dynamic that has me interested in the outcome of the next election cycle. The shape of this country rests on it.

There is little point in pondering the republican candidate. I see almost no chance, barring immense stupidity, that the RNC would make a serious effort to run someone other than Trump. If they did, it would be a huge risk based largely on a sense that Trump has become fatiguing. The left puts up so much resistance that even his supporters don’t want to hear about him anymore. Still, they would need to hit it out of the park with the new guy and I just don’t think they have anyone in the wings for that. Trump it is, then.

The Democratic candidate is the real area of interest. who that might be boils down to whether the DNC learned anything from their defeat in 2016. Based on their new slogan “A Better Deal: Better Jobs, Better Wages, Better Future.” It would seem they haven’t. They’re still clunky, awkward, and relying on their grasp of the social narrative to pull them through. They may still think their approach with Hillary was good and only failed because of exigent circumstances.

If they did learn from their mistakes, first round pick would be Joe Biden. He’s well liked, had a solid resume, doesn’t hold the same negativity as Hillary but can still project the message “Back to business as usual”. He would be seen as a return to the center, which is dearly needed. In a race between Biden and Trump, I think the vote might go to Biden. He could project  the sensibility and stability the swing voters desperately craved in 2016.

Problem being, he’s a white male. While adding no points for the swing voters, this absolutely deducts points for the core democratic base. The last white democrat to make it to the general was Kerry. Think about that. Somewhere along the way, the party made the decision to run the firsts game. First black president, first woman president, etc. Biden would be seen as a step backwards. They’d support him, but not with the same energy.

The alternative, the Hillary-should-have-won approach, is to bring in an outsider. I don’t have an actual pick for this option, and in talking with the politically informed, don’t think this person exists in real life, but he certainly was a character in the last season of West-Wing. Matt Santos, the vaguely Hispanic representative from Texas that ran and won after the end of the Bartlett administration. He’s a ready pick because he gets to continue the pattern of minority candidates but doesn’t shove anything down down our throats. Think of him like a Hispanic, probably not Mexican, Obama.

He could remain centrist on most of the divisive stuff while allowing his presence to signal social justice. His base could sling shit for him all day without his needed to say a word. He’d look clean to the opposition while still energizing the fanaticism of a culture war. Between Santos and Trump, I’m honestly not sure who’d win. And there in lays the danger.

A republican win proves to the fanatical left that they are in Nazi Germany after all. There will be no getting them back after that. Given their individualist/separatist leanings, it would drive the wedge deeper into the heart of this country.

A democratic win would leave the right feeling like they’ve lost their rightful turn. We’re used to two term presidents. To loose that on the grounds of the left shouting about social justice would leave a welt. Given the already high tension, it might be enough for the right to shake off it’s lethargy. A politically motivated conservative base is not something this country has seen in decades and isn’t something we’re ready to stomach.

The teeter totter would devolve into a tug-o-war. Balance would be traded in for domination. We as a country, unable to reconcile our differences, would only in-fight further. Without a centrist Democrat in office, there is no hope for america.

 

 

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